Sunday, February 6, 2011

Hmmmm?

Current Watches and Warnings



Starting tonight and ongoing into to Tuesday, we will likely see a clipper like system working it's way eastward over the Ohio Valley.  We can expect a Light Snowfall with this.  The determining factor in 3" of snow or 1" of snow will be how quickly the freezing sets up and swings eastward.  Right now it looks like it will be quick enough to give us some snow, but not a lot.



This is my current snowfall map.  This should be pretty easy to get. Most of the moisture should be behind the modified arctic front, thus giving us a good shot at some light accumulating snows.  Most of the snow would fall Monday evening into Tuesday, depending on how far east you are.

on to the bigger part of our forecast.

As well all know, there is potential for a bigger system beginning during the mid-week time period.  While this system seems to be taking an "interesting" track to the south of us. I don't think it's out of the question to say, that it's wrong and very well could be working it's way back to a northern track. So I have put together a map for Two scenarios.  It all depends on the Coastal storm that is approaching us to the south.  If it's stronger not as big of a storm in the late week period. 

This map shows the potential for a Bigger Storm of the Mid-Week Period. The reason for this is because of the two system working to the north or us and south of us during the Sunday-Tuesday time period. They didn't meet up in the scenario giving us a bigger storm later on in the week.  That would be nice track for some good accumulating snows in the southern Ohio Valley Region.

Here we have a scenario where the early week systems do meet up, thus bringing the track of the Mid-Week system farther south.  Just far enough south of us to keep it from gaining enough strength to throw moisture up into the Ohio Valley.  If this scenario panned out it would likely go even farther south close to the gulf. 

This is what the GFS is showing in terms of the track
 That's not really a healthy track for accumulating snow for this area, especially the type of snow that we want.  Sure 1-3" and 2-4"  but that's not what we want we want the big stuff 6"+

Well we have a lot to track in the coming days, let's keep our heads held high and expect the best of the scenarios (1st) :)







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