Friday, February 18, 2011

NOT YET OLD MAN WINTER......!

Saturday will feature lots of sun and plenty of warmth to go around.  It will be a tad on the colder side but I fully expect to see 50's throughout the region.  On my five day forecast I have the HIGH temperature slated at 50° there's is plenty of room for the temperatures to rise above that and don't be surprised if that happens.

Here's is my 5 day forecast.  I think this will probably stick pretty close to what should be happening outside of your window throughout the next five days.  Tuesday will be the biggest threat for a light snowfall.  I  created two scenarios yesterday.  1.)  precipitation falling as rain to start the week, that could bring severe weather.  2.)  precipitation falling as snow, that would be bring copious amounts of snow.  Well it seems as if our scenario will be in between.  We can expect a little bit of both to be happening, not by any means will there be tons of snow and certainly I wouldn't think anything in the severe department.  So just a good old fashioned rain/snow area of low pressure.  

If we're looking at what this early week storm will be doing, its really not that complicated of a storm.  but nailing down the rain/snow line will be the biggie as it will tell us who get the most snow....or rain :)

The incoming system will feature two areas of low pressure, the first will form and ride across the Northern Ohio Valley.  The first low will bring rain with it.  This is certainly a moisture enriched system and should bring some good and much needed rain to the area.

The second low will form behind the first low and ride across the Southern Ohio Valley, this will be the part of the storm that will produce that rain to snow line and will switch our precipitation over to a light period of snow.  I am thinking that total snow accumulations for areas along the Ohio River and South will be a coating-2", not a lot.  

With that being said here is the track of the system.

You can see the first low's track and then where the second low forms and takes over.


sunday-tuesday maps
GFS SNOWFALL PREDICTION.  








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